Showing posts with label Skin cancer. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Skin cancer. Show all posts

Friday, March 25, 2011

Bristol-Meyers Squibb (BMY) - Goldman Saches says BUY



Goldman Sachs says to buy Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (NYSE: BMY) ahead of the release of ipi PDUFA. Goldman has a $30 price target on shares

Read more: http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/11/03/952216/goldman-sachs-says-buy-bristol-myers-squibb-company-bmy#ixzz1HcUAtOPq


BMY was first mentioned in my previous blog post.  



Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Bristol-Meyers Squibb (BMY) - first in class advanced skin cancer treatment soon on the market?!

A major catalyst is coming up for Bristol-Meyers Squibb's (BMY) experimental chemotherapy, ipilimumab, in 2 days!!!

I know I don't usually invest in large cap pharmas but BMY's investigational drug has the potential to gain FDA's approval as a first in class therapy for advanced skin cancer as soon as this coming Friday. BMY's ipilimumab modulates the body's immune system through a novel mechanism to attack tumor cells. In the latest clinical trial, ipilimumab extended cancer patients' lives by nearly 4 months compared to the control. This is remarkable given that these are late stage (unresectable stage III or IV) melanoma patients with poor prognosis who had received multiple treatments before. It is also the first time that a drug shows increased survival in this patient population in a phase III study. While the end point of the trial, improved survival, was met, there were more side effects including colitis, gastrointestinal irritation, diarrhea, skin rash, and 14 deaths out of 403 patients compared to the control arm.

Catalyst: PDUFA 2011-03-26

What to do?
Based on the need for a new treatment for a severe disease such as advanced melanoma, I believe that the efficacy demonstrated by ipilimumab, despite having characteristic side effects, is sufficient for the drug to pass FDA's strict standard and gain an approval. I'm planning to purchase Apr $26 call and hold through the catalyst.

Thursday, March 3, 2011

Mela Sciences (MELA) - April $3 put options trading lower at $.45

This morning the April $3 put options started trading at $.45.  I submitted an order this morning!  Good luck!

Wednesday, March 2, 2011

Mela Sciences (MELA) - giving skin cancer detector another try? Why won't they listen to the FDA!?!?

Volatility to the extreme
The New York-based medical device developer, Mela Sciences (MELA), resubmitted a pre-market approval application for their skin cancer detector, MelaFind, to the US drug regulator.  Back in November, the FDA had made a public announcement, stating that MelaFind 'may potentially cause more harm than good' in its review of the melanoma detecting device.  
This device has not with the current data demonstrated any true clinical trade-off and may potentially cause more harm than good to the health of the public
This sent MELA's shares down 60% on the news.  Two days later, MELA managed to bounce back more than 100% after FDA's advisory panel (consists of external medical panelists) voted 8-7 for recommendation of MelaFind's approval.  Identifying that the surge was mainly due to market overreaction, I recommended shorting the stock.  MELA turned out dropping more than 30% in a short period of two weeks, making short sellers smile with a handsome gain.  

Déjà vu
Today, shares of Mela Sciences jumped again (+20.4%) on news of the company's resubmission of MelaFind's approval.  I think the story is going to repeat itself in the next few weeks.  I can see MELA trickling down to the $2.5 support level soon and possibly breaking that level.  Honestly, getting past the FDA's ever rising bar is becoming more and more challenging.  A device which had received negative reviews by the agency in the past is especially unlikely to gain FDA's favor down the road no matter how many attempts are made.  In my opinion, this is just a waste of time and money, BUT certainly not a bad opportunity for short sellers to profit.  

What to buy?
April $3 put options (trading at $0.5 as of Mar. 2, 2011).