Tuesday, December 28, 2010

MannKind (MNKD) - Stock stays up after FDA delay (for now). Time to buy or sell?!?!

FDA Delays Key Decision Date
Mannkind Corporation (MNKD), the inhaled insulin-developing biotech led by billionaire entrepreneur Alfred E. Mann, was supposed to hear from the FDA tomorrow regarding the potential marketing approval of the company's experimental diabetes medicine.  However, the drug regulator announced that it will postpone the announcement for another 4 weeks.

Stock Trend
MannKind (MNKD) traded up ~12% in early session, peaking at $8.88, before settling in the $8.20 - $8.25 range.  The tremendous bearish sentiment around MNKD's inhaled insulin product candidate, Afrezza, is being counteracted by investors who are not ready to give up yet.

Outlook/Trading Strategy
It appears that the bulls are reluctant to throw away their shares before the rescheduled PDUFA action date in 4 weeks (~ Jan. 25, 2011).  There's just been too much invested leading up to this critical point!!!  This may create a mini bump in share price, pushing it above $9 in the next few weeks.  I'm hoping to purchase some beaten up January call options ($9 strike) with the expiry date just prior to Jan. 25, 2011.  These options have taken a hit this morning, falling 80% from $1.54 to $0.31.  My target price is $0.25.  Then, in the unexpected case of Afrezz's approval, I'll be playing my post-approval drop strategy by racking up some cheap put options.  Keep your eyes open in the next several weeks to see how Alfred Mann's quest for alternative insulin winds down!

Wednesday, December 15, 2010

Mannkind Corp (MNKD) - on the move to higher ground as PDUFA approaches


Mannkind Corp (MNKD) has gained an incredible ~40% in the past 5 days as the biotech awaits FDA's final call on it's experimental inhaled insulin drug, Afrezza.  The PDUFA is scheduled for Dec. 29, 2010.  

Keep your eyes open for some beaten down put options if Afrezza does get approved.  This would be a play similar to what we've done with MELA and OREX.  Essentially we want to capitalize on the post-approval drop in Mannkind's share price.    

Saturday, December 11, 2010

Orexigen (OREX) - put options yielded 138% return since FDA advisory committee meeting

Orexigen`s December put options with $10 strike price were traded at $0.65 on the morning after the company`s met with the FDA`s advisory panel (Dec. 8, 2010) regarding Orexigen`s late phase obesity drug, Contrave.  At one point the options skyrocketed to $1.90 before settling at $1.55 at Friday`s close.  Because it was rightly predicted that OREX would come down significantly from the post-approval hype, those who purchased put options profited from the fall of OREX`s share value.  So how much profit is that?  Well, let's look at an example:

# of contracts purchased:  10 (options to sell 10 x 100 = 1,000 share)
Cost of purchase:  $0.65 x 1000 = $650
Investment return:  $1.55 x 1000 = $1,550
Net gain:  $1,550 - $650 = $900
% gain:  138%

Not bad for 2 days of waiting?  I certainly think so!

Thursday, December 9, 2010

Orexigen (OREX) - fat profit for short sellers (30% gain in 48 hrs)

BEFORE - $12.42 (shown in 'after hours' price)
AFTER - 30% drop in 2 days (profit for short sellers)

Once again, short selling pays.  Orexigen has shed 30% of its post-advisory meeting peak value, $12.42, in just 2 days.  This is mainly the result of a correction to the post-advisory meeting hype, which is observed almost always shortly after a huge catalyst passes.

OREX was recommended as a target for short selling 2 days ago.
   

Tuesday, December 7, 2010

Orexigen Therapeutics (OREX) - up 155% on FDA advisory panel vote (13 to 7) for approval of Contrave

~~~Breaking news~~~

Orexigen's (OREX) stock surged 155% in post market trading after the advisory panel voted 13 to 7 for recommending Contrave's approval.  Contrave is Orexigen's experimental diet pill currently in final stage review by the FDA.  The agency is scheduled to announce the final call on Jan. 31, 2011.  Keep in mind that, although it usually does, the drug regulator does not have to adhere to the panel's recommendation.  After the unfavorable review of Arena Pharmaceuticals' Lorcaserin (Orexigen's close competitor), it was recommended that Orexigen (OREX) would be a great buy.  


What to do now?
SHORT the stock!!!  Anticipate a 10-20% sell-off in the near future as investors scramble to cash out.  Just like Mela Sciences (MELA), the spectacular rise in OREX right now is the result of market overreaction, which almost always evaporates sooner or later.  Want some examples?  Take a look at AVNR, DNDN and SOMX!!! 

Avanir Pharmaceuticals (AVNR)
Pre-approval run-up
Post-approval drop (-19%)
Dendreon Corp (DNDN)
Pre-approval run-up
Post-approval drop (-31%)
Somaxon Pharmaceuticals (SOMX)
Pre-approval run-up
Post-approval drop (-70%)


Monday, December 6, 2010

Mela Sciences (MELA) - short sellers reap 33% profit from falling biotech

Mela Sciences (MELA) jumped a hefty 109% after receiving a 'not-all-completely negative' recommendation from FDA's advisory panel on Nov. 19, 2010.  This is 48 hours post FDA's warning against Mela's experimental medical device and the alleged violation against federal securities laws by company executives.  Spotting an overreaction by the market immediately after the close to split votes by the medical experts on the panel, goldbiopharma recommended that MELA was a ripe opportunity for short selling.  

"MELA's shares more than doubled in pre-market trading.  This may be a good opportunity to SHORT the stock as this overreaction is expected to wean in the next few weeks."   


To date, the stock has fallen 33% - not a bad return in ~2 weeks for short sellers!!!


Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Two companies up despite market losses - MannKind (MNKD) and pSivida (PSDV)


MNKD and PSDV were mentioned in my previous blog post as year-end biotech stocks with a chance to pop prior their PDUFA (prescription drug user fee act) actions date, Dec. 29, 2010 for both.   


Friday, November 19, 2010

ALERT - Mela Sciences (MELA) bounced back more than 100% post FDA advisory panel

Mela Sciences (MELA), developer of handheld skin cancer detector, received marginal support from FDA's advisory panel yesterday, boosting its share price back up over 100%.  As mentioned in my previous post, anything is possible; the biotech may in fact receive 'non-negative' recommendations from the panel.  The vote came out 8-7.  Eight out of 15 medical specialists on FDA's advisory committee voted FOR the passing of MELA's device.

MELA's shares more than doubled in pre-market trading.  This may be a good opportunity to SHORT the stock as this overreaction is expected to wean in the next few weeks.   


Thursday, November 18, 2010

Mela Sciences (MELA) - the ugly side of biotech

Mela Sciences (MELA), the Irvington, NY-based developer of handheld skin cancer detector, fell more than 55% in 3 trading sessions after FDA announced that the company's device might actually 'cause harm' to patients if approved. Adding to this, the biotech is under investigation for potentially violating federal securities law by 'misleading' investors with its reporting.  It seems that ugly has turned uglier for Mela Sciences!  Trading over $6 merely 48 hours ago, Mela Sciences has crashed to below $3 per share.



MELA will be facing FDA's advisory panel today to discuss the potential clearing of the device for marketing.  While the general consensus is that the maker of MelaFind (handheld detector of skin cancer) will not receive positive recommendation from the panel of medical experts, it is never 100% sure what the outcome will be.  A close tie may even relieve the biotech from the current doom.  In any case, the path to device approval will no doubt be treacherous for Mela Sciences from this point on. Stay tuned for FDA's panel conclusion.   

Monday, November 15, 2010

Biotech stocks to keep an eye on - year-end biotech stockwatch 2010


1. Valeant Pharmaceuticals International (VRX)
- Product candidate: Ezogabine (adjunct treatment of partial onset of seizures in adults)
- PDUFA: Nov. 30, 2010

2. pSivida Limited (PSDV)
- Product candidate: Iluvien (treatment of Diabetic Macular Edema)
- PDUFA: Dec. 29, 2010

3. MannKind Corp. (MNKD)
- Product candidate: Afrezza (inhaled insulin)
- PDUFA: Dec. 29, 2010

Friday, October 29, 2010

Vivus Inc. (VVUS) - unfinished battle for Qnexa


Vivus surged on Friday despite FDA's issuance of a complete response letter (CRL) to the company's experimental obesity drug, Qnexa.




The reasons for the substantial spike in Vivus' share price are the following:

1) Vivus' follow-up data package, ready to be submitted in 6 weeks (no lengthy additional trials needed)
2) FDA's seemingly 'neutral' stance on the possibility of approving a new diet pill (based on their response to Arena's angry investors)
3) Renewed investor confidence/interest after Arena's failure to obtain FDA's approval (potentially 'larger' market share for Vivus)
4) Qnexa's impressive efficacy in inducing weight loss (12-15% compared to placebo)
5) Qnexa's additional efficacy in diabetes
6) Qnexa's relatively mild side effects (non-tumor associated, unlike Arena's Lorcaserin)


Based on their interpretation of the CRL, JP Morgan upgraded VVUS from neutral to overweight and shifted the price target up from $13 to $16.  


Saturday, October 23, 2010

It's a NO: FDA rejects Arena Pharmaceuticals' diet pill after all

FDA's decision
A CRL (complete response letter) was issued to Arena Pharmaceuticals by the FDA this morning regarding the biotech's experimental medicine, Lorcaserin, citing the following concerns:

1) Tumor-related incidents in preclinical female rat studies
2) Marginal efficacy in obese patients
3) Lack of data to support the irrelevancy of the correlation between increased tumor incidents and Lorcaserin in human patients
4) Incomplete assessment of Lorcaserin's benefit-risk profile


Arena press release


Coincidental jump in Arena's stock
As predicted, the FDA was slightly delayed in their drug assessment announcement of Arena's weight management drug, Lorcaserin.  Coupled with a letter sent from FDA to the firm addressing shareholders' complaints about the absence of toxicologists in the advisory panel, which could have represented an unbalanced and biased review of Locaserin during the panel meeting, it almost seemed as though there might have been a chance that the drug could gain an approval despite the unfavorable recommendation forwarded to the FDA.  The coincidence boosted ARNA as high as 26% at one point before closing at +11.64%.  This was a completely unexpected event and should not be treated as a lost opportunity!  Watch what happens when the market opens on Monday.  It is very likely that the stock would suffer a 30-50% cut as soon as trading opens.  

Friday, October 22, 2010

Arena Pharmaceuticals (ARNA) - Lorcaserin's fate to be decided today

The FDA is anticipated to announce its decision on the New Drug Application of the weight management treatment developed by Arena Pharmaceuticals.  The drug received a 9-5 vote against its approval by FDA's advisory committee on Sept 16, 2010.  The general sentiment is that the drug will NOT receive FDA's nod this time around.  However, additional studies are already underway at Arena to shift the focus to diabetes patients.  If encouraging results are seen, the company may be able to jump back into the game in late 2011-2012.  While shares may seem extremely CHEAP post FDA's decision today, it may still be a while until we see another pop in ARNA's shares due to the expanded timeline for the company's ongoing studies.  We may just sit out and watch this time!  *FDA is notorious for delaying, so don't be surprised if we don't hear anything concrete today*

The obese is waiting...

Monday, October 18, 2010

Cerus Corp (CERS) - 3Q earnings report Oct 28, 2010

Cerus Corp (CERS) is scheduled to release its earnings report next week on Oct 28, 2010 AFTER the closing bell.  A live webcast will be hosted by the company at 4:15 pm ET.  The blood component-separation specialty biotech has been on a rising trend due to positive large-scale clinical study results and consistent expansion in product sales.

    "This [latest] study demonstrates that INTERCEPT can be implemented into routine practice, providing protection against transfusion-transmitted pathogens, without impacting either platelet or red blood cell utilization. This observation confirms previous data indicating that the treated platelets are functioning similarly to untreated platelets," said Dr. Laurence Corash, Cerus' chief medical officer.

"Post-earnings boost"
What followed each financial statement release in the past 4 quarters interestingly was always a 'post-earnings boost' in Cerus' stock as investors became more and more confident of the company's product market potential (read more about Cerus' INTERCEPT blood system).


With the next quarterly statement due next Thursday, today's 4.45% dip may represent a discount for those desiring to catch the pre-earnings ride.

Wednesday, October 13, 2010

Orexigen Therapeutics (OREX) - light volume behind rising share price (strong buying interest??)

While a drastic jump in Orexigen Therapeutics' stock (OREX) was not seen (due to many factors) after OREX's close competitor, Arena Pharmaceuticals (ARNA), received a negative review by FDA's advisory panel of the company's obesity drug candidate, a 'modest' gain of > 7% was sufficient to support the idea that investors have not completely given up on the company.  What's more interesting is the light trading volume behind the climbing share price, signifying a strong interest in the stock and a potential run in the near term.  Could encouraging 'insider information' have leaked to a small group of people to prompt the buying momentum?!?!  Perhaps.  Investors should be cautious, however, about hanging on to the stock too long as ARNA and VVUS' PDUFA dates quickly approach (rejections may cause OREX to swing dramatically in either direction.  *OREX was recommended post ARNA's 70% tumble after hours on Sept. 17, 2010*


Friday, September 17, 2010

Arena Pharmaceuticals (ARNA) - FDA advisory panel meeting aftermath

Panel Vote
As expected, the FDA once again dished out a curve ball at the advisory meeting to a seemingly promising drug.  In total, out of 14 medical experts, 9 voted yes and 5 voted no for recommendation of Arena Pharmaceuticals' weight management drug, Lorcaserin.  This is yet another disappointing ending to a biotech firm seeking to break into the billion-dollar industry of weight control, following Vivus Inc.'s failure two months ago with its candidate, Qnexa, which was recommended against due to a number of safety concerns.

Sunken stock
The outcome sent ARNA stock crashing down, amassing a total of over 70% slash since the release of panel meeting notes.  This speaks to the power of biotech trading, which can turn heaven into hell in a matter of days.  So, what now?  Arena Pharmaceuticals' shares, once more than tripled in a month and a half, are now flattened by once hopeful investors.

Now what?!
After what we've seen with VVUS and ARNA, is this the end of the pursuit of the almighty FDA-approved diet pill?  Well, not so fast.  Just a reminder, information forwarded from the advisory panel to the FDA does not necessarily have to be followed by the drug regulator.  In other words, the FDA may come out and approve either one (or both) of VVUS' and ARNA's candidates despite the negative recommendation.  While the likelihood of that is slim, it is certainly not zero.  Keeping this in mind, one might choose the option of picking up cheap shares of both of these companies (especially ARNA) in hopes to see an incredible bounce back in the future, as near as Oct 28, 2010 for VVUS and Oct 22, 2010 for ARNA (PDUFAs).  VVUS has already recovered ~12% from the post-panel trough and there's still room to climb before the PDUFA.  Similarly, ARNA may follow suit and rebound from the horrific sell-off, presenting a way to make back some cash for head spinning investors.

A thin string of hope
As mentioned, selected medical experts will be assessing the marketability of Orexigenics Therapeutics' (OREX) diet therapy, Contrave, on Dec 17, 2010.  This will be an interesting timing as the industry will have seen the outcome of the FDA's final call on VVUS and ARNA's drugs.  Approved or rejected, the news will dramatically dictate OREX's fate and time will only tell which of these three companies will come out on top in this battle over the massive obesity market.  Fascinatingly, post release of panelmeeting notes/announcement of ARNA's panel result, OREX has already made an incredible 45% run in three trading sessions.  

At the moment, OREX is sitting just above the $6 mark.  Will it climb higher?  I certainly think so.  Look at ARNA.  After negative review of VVUS' Qnexa by the FDA, ARNA's shares surged ~86% in two weeks.
 
Are we going to see the same for OREX in the following two weeks?  We shall see!

Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Arena Pharmaceuticals (ARNA) - stock sinks in early trading post release of FDA's lukewarm comment on efficacy and safety

Concerns about drug safety again was at the centre of FDA's advisory panel opinion.  On top of that, the agency considers the 3% weight loss over the placebo group, shown in the Arena's late human trial, as being marginally efficacious compared to the FDA's 5% bench mark for weight control drugs.  The release of the meeting notes led to a 37% crash in ARNA during early trading.  Though seemingly hopeless, it may be time to load up on ARNA's close competitor, Orexigen Therapeutics(OREX), next one up in front experts from the FDA with its weight management drug, Contrave.  Alternatively, it may be a great time to pick up some beaten down ARNA shares in midst of overreaction later in the day depending on the extent of pessimism.

Friday, September 10, 2010

Arena Pharmaceuticals (ARNA) - Sept 16 panel weighing in on obesity market

Arena Pharmaceuticals is up next in front of picky FDA advisory committee with its potential weight loss blockbuster, Lorcaserin.  This will be a spotlight event as Arena's strong rival, Vivus Inc. (VVUS), failed to gain confidence within the advisory members last month with it's obesity drug candidate, Qnexa.

Recent dip in Arena's stock presents a great late entry for those wanting to play the last last minute run-up before  the panel gathering next THUR (Sept 16).  This will be a lightening fast trade as I never hold my position past the actual catalyst event.  My current buy target is $6.65.  While this is ambitious given ARNA's recent movement between ~$6.60 and ~$7.30, I feel like the only way to gain from the stock last minute is to be aggressive on low entry, which will produce positive return on any catalyst-driven spikes.

Wednesday, September 8, 2010

Questcor Pharmaceuticals (QCOR) - FDA notified 2nd PDUFA delay

QCOR surged in early trading, tapping $10.63 at one point (up ~9.5% from opening mark), in anticipation of FDA's drug approval.  The stock closed at $10.38 and shed 70% of the day's gain in after-hour trading with news of FDA's second delay in PDUFA action date.  Company press release halts major sell-off.


Just as health care providers and investors geared up to embrace FDA's approval of Questcor's infantile spasm drug, Acthar, another delay was dished out by the drug regulator 3 days before the scheduled action date.  Questcor informed the public about the status of their supplementary NDA (New Drug Application) today in its press release stating that 

the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has informed Questcor that the FDA will require additional time beyond the current action date of September 11, 2010 to complete its review of Questcor's supplemental new drug application (sNDA) for H.P. Acthar Gel (repository corticotropin injection) in the treatment of infantile spasms (IS).


"We are pleased to be nearing the finish line and look forward to the FDA finalizing its review of our sNDA," indicated Don M. Bailey, Questcor's president and CEO, who remains optimistic about the status of review and reassured investors of a healthy balance sheet for the 3rd quarter of 2010.  Once again, the FDA never fails to surprise everyone last minute.

Satisfied with the early run-up, I exited all my positions at $10.58 just when the price started to dip down - 9% return in 8 days =)     


Thursday, September 2, 2010

Questcor Pharmaceuticals (QCOR) - crossing the finish line in ~1 week

Questcor Pharmaceuticals (QCOR) is scheduled to hear from the FDA's decision regarding its infantile spasm drug, H.P Acthar Gel, on Sept 11, 2010 (since this falls on a Saturday, the announcement will be available most likely Friday or Monday).  An official stamp by the agency will allow Questcor to receive an orphan drug status and market and promote the drug specifically for the indication of infantile spasm, a serious form of epilepsy, or seizure disorder, occurring during infancy and childhood (~0.03 to 0.05% of live births).

Delay in June
Originally, the FDA was expected to announce the final call on H.P Acthar Gel's approval on June 11, causing the stock to rally at the time.  However, an unforeseen notification was issued to Questcor to postpone the key date to Sept 11, 2010.  News like this typically would drag the stock price down as investors retreat in panic.  Surprisingly, instead of a large scale sell off, the stock soared and gained 14% in 4 days after FDA's delay ($10.01 --> $11.44).

Cheerful note
The surge in stock price, while peculiar, may have resulted directly from the FDA's positive tone in its communication with QCOR:
The FDA extended the PDUFA date in order to review information regarding labeling and potential post-approval commitments that they solicited from Questcor.
"Labeling" and "post-approval commitments" sound to me like an 80% tilt in the direction of approval.  Furthermore, the advisory panel, which met on May 6, 2010, expressed willingness to support the passing of Questcor's drug.  The members voted 22 yes to 1 no when asked, "did Questcor provide substantial evidence of effectiveness of Acthar as a treatment for the patients with infantile spasms?" and 20 yes, 1 no, and 2 abstentions when asked, "did Questcor submit sufficient evidence of safety of Acthar at an effective dosing regimen?"

Stock trend
QCOR has seen its ups and downs in the past 3 month.  With the key PDUFA date ahead (Sept 11, 2010), the stock is poised for a run.  However, with the recent dismal outcome of drug reviews (e.g. Jazz Pharmacuticals, Vivus Inc.) and FDA's notorious unpredictable nature, nothing can be said for sure.  Nevertheless, in a recent note provided to his clients, John Newman, an Oppenheimer analyst, maintains a buy rating on QCOR with a $14 price target, expecting FDA's complete approval of Acthar Gel for the treatment of infantile spasm.  Upon approval, the drug could add $10 - 15 million to Questcor's already-impressive earnings and raise EPS by 4 to 9 cents.

Disclaimer:  Long QCOR     


Friday, August 20, 2010

Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ) - unfavored by FDA panel for JZP-6 approval

Today's FDA advisory panel meeting marked a bitter wind down for Jazz Pharmaceuticals (at least before the PDUFA).  The votes were 20 NO vs. 2 YES for recommendation of JAZZ's late stage drug, JZP-6.  A minute-by-minute coverage of the panel discussion can be read here.  This outcome was broadly unanticipated and once again underscored the unpredictability of the FDA.  Of note, the FDA, while almost always, does not have to follow the panel's decision in passing a drug for marketing.  This may leave a razor thin glimpse of hope for the troubled firm and its investors.  Based on my trading strategy, readers were advised to exit between Aug 13-17 without holding positions through the panel.  Those who followed, myself included, enjoyed a handsome return from the smooth (20-30%) pre-panel runup (from ~$8.50 - $11) despite the unexpected tragic ending.

Wednesday, August 18, 2010

Jazz (JAZZ) Pharmaceuticals - FDA meeting notes out

FDA advisory committee meeting materials can be downloaded here.  See market reaction post FDA document release here

Monday, August 16, 2010

Remember Questcor Pharmaceuticals (QCOR)? - PDUFA Sept 11, 2010

Read about Questcor Pharmaceuticals (QCOR) here.  The upcoming PDUFA for the company's infantile spasm drug, H.P Acthar Gel, is scheduled for Sept 11, 2010.  The FDA requested an extension for reviewing this drug back in June which brought the shares down.  However, Questcor expressed confidence in gaining FDA nod for the drug in their press release despite the delay.  The positive sentiment will likely attract investors back ahead of the key decision date - Sept 11, 2010.

Thursday, August 12, 2010

Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ) picking up strong - FDA catalyst-based trading works!!!

    

Stock price and volume soar for Jazz Pharmaceuticals ahead of critical FDA advisory committee meeting (next week Friday, Aug 20).  Price is up ~16% in 2 days and ~26% in 10 days.  Once again, the pattern of stock direction follows that would be expected prior to an FDA-based catalyst event and the trading strategy works!!!

Wednesday, August 11, 2010

JAZZ - upbeat trend marks FDA panel countdown



JAZZ traded up a whopping 11.11% today amid dreadful market condition, following the announcement of a stronger-than-expected balance sheet for the quarter ending June 10, 2010.  The company is expected to hear from a panel of medical experts on next FRI Aug 20 concerning its product candidate, JZP-6.  Meeting notes are usually made public 2 days before the gathering.  These documents will usually set the tone of the discussion and will likely influence the stock price immediately even before the panel meeting takes place.  As it is always risky to hold a position through a FDA event-based catalyst, the best exit point for JAZZ will be between FRI Aug 13 to TUE Aug 17, ~48 hours before the FDA panel.  Current price target:  $11.20 - $11.70. 

Tuesday, August 10, 2010

JAZZ - outstanding 2Q earnings contribute to 4.76% rise ahead of FDA panel

JAZZ pharmaceuticals announced better-than-expected earnings report for the second quarter of 2010 after the closing bell today, pushing the share price above the $10 mark briefly before settling at $9.90 during after-hour trading.  The EPS (earnings per share) of $0.28, according to the company's press release, was markedly higher than analysts' estimate of $0.14.  Upward momentum is expected to persist as the biotech company approaches FDA panel discussion (Aug 20) regarding its end-stage product candidate, JZP-6.  Read more about JAZZ and JZP-6.

Saturday, August 7, 2010

Alexza Pharmaceuticals (ALXA) - discovering a breath of cure

Company Overview
Alexza Pharmaceuticals (ALXA) is a rapidly emerging pharmaceutical development company focused on the research, development and commercialization of novel proprietary products for the acute treatment of central nervous system, or CNS conditions. All of our product candidates are based on our proprietary technology, the Staccato® system.  The Staccato system vaporizes excipient-free drugs to form a condensation aerosol that, when inhaled, allows for rapid systemic drug delivery.  Because of the ideal particle size of the aerosol, the pure drug is quickly absorbed through the deep lung into the bloodstream, providing speed of therapeutic onset that is comparable to intravenous (IV) administration but with greater ease, patient comfort and convenience.

Alexza currently has five product candidates in various stages of clinical development, and one product candidate (AZ-004 (Staccato loxapine)) for which clinical trials have been completed and an NDA has been submitted.

Trading Catalyst
PDUFA Date:  Oct. 11, 2010

Technology
AZ-004 (Staccato loxapine) 

The Staccato System


Design Principle
The key to ALXA's proprietary technology is vaporization of drug without thermal degradation, which is achieved by rapidly heating a thin film of the drug.  In less than half a second, the drug is heated to a temperature sufficient to convert the solid drug film into a vapor.  Because the duration of drug heating is so brief, thermal decomposition is minimal.  After vaporization, the drug cools rapidly in air, condensing into pure drug aerosol particles of near ambient temperature.  The Staccato system consistently creates aerosol particles averaging one to three microns in size, which is the proper size for deep lung inhalation.  The Staccato system also produces a consistent high emitted dose, regardless of the patient's breathing pattern.

Bioavailability, Pharmacokinetics & Pharmacodynamics
The aerosol produced with the Staccato system is designed to be absorbed rapidly through the deep lung, with a speed of therapeutic onset comparable to IV administration, generally achieving peak plasma levels of drug in two to five minutes, which is much faster than oral tablet delivery.  Pharmacokinetic studies show that drugs introduced through inhalation using ALXA's delivery technology achieved 100% bioavailability within 3 minutes of administration, remarkably resembling that would be achieved through IV injection.


Furthermore, in vivo pharmacodynamic studies in an animal model conducted with a commercially available migraine drug show that the Staccato system results in more rapid absorption than subcutaneous injection or oral administration.  With the same migraine drug, the delivery technology demonstrates an onset of action of less than one minute as shown in the graph below.


Recent Stock Trend
ALXA presents yet another solid target on the rise prior to the October trading catalyst.  The company has plenty of cash, a novel technology platform, and an expansive product pipeline.  Alternative dosing strategies have been the pursuit of many biotech firms including MannKind (MNKD) and Generex (GNBT).  Avoiding needles as part of the drug administration process will significantly raise patient compliance and in turn reduce unnecessary medical expenditure as a result of failure to complete a drug course.  With a number of experimental drugs in the pipeline and a late-stage candidate, ALXA is in a potent position to grow substantially should AZ-004 successfully passes FDA's scrutiny.


With the recent dilution, the stock price dropped overnight from the pre-dilution level of $3 to $2.46.  While the 18% cut was unfortunate for those already holding positions, it screams an excellent entry point for investors to catch the run-up wave at a generous discount before the Oct 11 PDUFA.

Price Target
JMP Securities:  $10 --> $12 price target (Market Outperform)
Wedbush Morgan Securities:  $6  (Buy --> Strong Buy)
WBB Securities:  Buy --> Strong Buy